Coming at this moment when diplomacy seemed to be making headway, the decision by Israel to essentially strike Iranian nuclear and military leadership targets was quite stunning. A diplomatic agreement that verifiably keeps Iran away from a nuclear weapon would have been a much more effective approach in the long-run to protect US interests and keep Israel secure. And it would have had the benefit of not risking a major regional war that could endanger not only Israelis but also American forces.
In the near-term, the biggest question is what is Iran’s ability to respond and how much of its missile capabilities have been destroyed? If it has the ability to mount a major counterattack and – if even a couple of missiles get through and cause significant damage and casualties in Israel – or if Iran chooses to fire at American bases, we could have dramatic escalation. On the other hand, if the US is able to work with Israel and other regional partners to defeat any major missile attacks, as we previously did in April and October 2024, there is still a chance to de-escalate relatively quickly.
In the long-term, the question is whether or not this now pushes Iran towards pursuing a nuclear weapon and whether and how quickly, with its remaining nuclear infrastructure, it can build a bomb and what can be done to stop that. Estimates for how long this would take vary from a year to a few months depending on the type of device. If Iran does choose to go in this direction, what can Israel do to act militarily to stop it? Or will it call on the US instead of intervene and what will the US do in such a scenario?
Finally, it is also important to remember that even as the world’s focus shifts to Iran, we cannot forget that the greatest threat to Israel’s security and democratic and Jewish nature is the unresolved conflict with the Palestinians. There are millions of Palestinians living between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. Iran is thousands of miles away. The most important thing that Israel can do for its long term security is come to an agreement that ends the war in Gaza, gets the hostages out, and gets humanitarian aid in. It can then work with the Arab world on a real political, security, and reconstruction plan for the day after that ensures Hamas no longer governs Gaza. And it can use that effort as a springboard for an eventual “23 state solution” – a comprehensive peace between Israel and all of the Arab states with the creation of a new demilitarized Palestinian state.