There is no question over the threat Iran poses against Israel or the destabilizing role that Iran and its proxies, not to mention the regime’s menacing missile program and nuclear aspirations, have played over the course of decades in the Middle East. It is precisely for this reason that the United States and its allies joined efforts in 2015 to negotiate the JCPOA deal that sought to ensure Iran’s nuclear program would remain a peaceful one. That was intended to pave the way for expanded diplomacy aimed at addressing Iran’s other destabilizing behaviors. The US withdrawal from JCPOA in 2018 was a significant setback for diplomacy and led Iran to supercharge its nuclear program.
Last night’s attacks by Israel, launched 48 hours before US-Iranian negotiations were set to continue in Oman, seem deliberately designed to ensure diplomacy fails again. The problem is that, as the US and Israel have experienced time and again over the course of decades, underlying ideologies cannot be defeated through solely military means. This is especially true, as we have most recently witnessed in Gaza, when civilians bear much of the brunt of the costs. Diplomacy, whether now or later, will be critical to ensuring both a sustainable end to Iran’s aggression and Israel’s enduring security. Withdrawal from the JCPOA made Israel less, not more safe. This newest setback to diplomacy will inflame the region even further without, as far as we can tell, a clear strategy for restoring stability on the other side.