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I hope you are doing well.
With Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas promising retaliation for the events of the past week, I wanted to make sure you saw these important updates from the region as well as J Street’s statements and resources.
If you haven’t yet, I also recommend registering for our emergency briefing on the risk of regional war, next Monday (8/5) at 11am, here.
All the best,
Hannah
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Hannah Morris
She/Her
Director of Government Affairs, J Street
Cell: 832-606-1817
J Street’s Congressional Resource Page
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This week on j street
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J STREET URGES SWIFT INTERNATIONAL ACTION TO PREVENT ALL-OUT MIDEAST WAR AS IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER ORDERS ATTACK ON ISRAEL
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| STATEMENT |
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LATEST VIOLENCE HIGHLIGHTS URGENCY OF A CEASEFIRE, HOSTAGE RELEASE, AND DE-ESCALATION
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What we’re reading
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Biden warns Netanyahu against escalation as risk of regional war grows
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| U.S. officials told Axios Biden called Netanyahu to discuss U.S.-Israeli joint military preparations for retaliations by Iran and Hezbollah — but also to make clear he was not pleased with the direction the Israeli prime minister has taken in the last week. One U.S. official said Biden complained to Netanyahu that the two had just spoken last week in the Oval Office about securing the hostage deal, but instead Netanyahu went ahead with the assassination in Tehran. Biden then told Netanyahu the U.S. will help Israel defeat an Iranian attack, but after that he expects no more escalation from the Israeli side and immediate movement toward a hostage deal, the U.S. official said. Biden also warned Netanyahu that if he escalates again, he shouldn’t count on the U.S. to bail him out, the U.S. official added. |
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U.S. prepares to counter Iranian attack on Israel within days, U.S. officials say
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| The Biden administration is convinced Iran is going to attack Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran earlier this week and is preparing to counter it, three U.S. officials told Axios… U.S. officials say they expect any Iranian retaliation to be from the same playbook as their Apr. 13 attack on Israel — but potentially larger in scope — and it could also involve the Lebanese Hezbollah. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian political and military officials said Iran is going to retaliate for Haniyeh’s assassination. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has also vowed to respond to the Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Tuesday that killed his top military adviser. The Biden administration is concerned it may be more difficult to mobilize the same international and regional coalition of countries that defended Israel from the previous Iranian attack because Haniyeh’s assassination is in the context of the Israel-Hamas war, which has drawn sharp anti-Israel sentiments across the region. |
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Gaza’s Only Humanitarian Zone Has Shrunk by a Fifth Recently
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| The Israeli military has designated just one area of the Gaza Strip as a “humanitarian zone” for displaced people — and that area keeps shrinking. In the latest downsizing, the military on Saturday ordered the evacuation of two more parts of central Gaza that had been part of the humanitarian zone. Similar orders have forced more than 200,000 Palestinians to relocate over the last week alone, according to the United Nations. A New York Times analysis of the latest orders showed that the zone has shrunk by more than a fifth in recent weeks, going from encompassing nearly 17 percent of the Gaza Strip to 13 percent now. Maps and analysis of satellite imagery show that the zone is already overcrowded, frequently damaged by strikes and lacking sufficient medical services. The Israeli military has said its recent evacuations and operations have targeted a renewed Hamas insurgency, and it accused Hamas of launching rockets from the areas that came under the latest evacuation order on Sunday. |
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Away From the War in Gaza, Another Palestinian Economy Is Wrecked
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| The war that followed the invasion is devastating Gaza, but it is also impoverishing the West Bank, which has become a kind of second front in Israel’s battle against Palestinian militancy. The Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the West Bank but does not run Gaza, has been paying only about 50 percent of the salaries it owes its estimated 140,000 employees. In the West Bank as a whole, which has a population of about three million, 144,000 jobs have disappeared since October, and 148,000 Palestinians who were working in Israel have lost their jobs, according to the World Bank. Before Oct. 7, unemployment in the West Bank was about 13 percent, compared to 45 percent in Gaza. |
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Analysis | Haniyeh’s Assassination Made It Clear: Israeli Hostages Are Not at Top of Netanyahu’s Agenda
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| But then came the assassination of Haniyeh that’s been attributed to Israel, which took place on Iranian soil and was conducted in a way that raised tensions with Hamas as hostage negotiations were underway. It was a poke in the eye of the Iranian regime, which had been hosting Haniyeh for the swearing-in ceremony for the country’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. It puts the Iranians at the center of the deliberations over retaliation. It’s no wonder that the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, made sure to leak that he ordered a direct strike from Iran on Israeli soil. Still, spokesmen for the various groups belonging to the “axis of resistance” have emphasized in recent days that they are not interested in all-out war. Regarding the hostage deal, it’s evident that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has his own agenda, and bringing the hostages home is not at the top of it. The prime minister is interested in continuing to pursue the war in Gaza without any change in the allocation of forces operating there against Hamas and without pulling troops from Netzarim or Philadelphi, the two corridors in the enclave now occupied by the IDF. |
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Analysis | Unrest at Army Bases Highlights a Long Battle for Israel’s Soul
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| Recent unrest at two Israeli military bases has highlighted a growing divide among Israelis about the conduct of their soldiers, and revived a deeper and older battle over the nature of the Israeli state and who should shape its future. The trouble began on Monday after 10 soldiers were detained on suspicion of raping a Palestinian man held at Sde Teiman, a military jail in southern Israel, according to court records. Two of the soldiers were later released. Dozens of protesters gathered outside the base in solidarity with the detained soldiers, including at least three far-right lawmakers from the ruling coalition. Hundreds later massed outside Beit Lid, a second base in which the 10 men had been brought for interrogation. Dozens surged inside both bases, brushing aside the guards at the gates. The incidents were widely broadcast across Israel, spreading an image of disunity at a time when the country is fighting enemies on multiple fronts. |
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Analysis | Can Anyone Govern Gaza?
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| There are at least seven possible options for Gaza’s future, and none are good. Some leave Hamas too strong; others require a costly occupation of the territory by Israel or foreign powers. The best among this set of bad choices is for the PA to run Gaza, but given both Hamas’s and Israel’s opposition to any elevation of the PA’s standing, this option seems a long shot. The United States and its allies should increase the odds of a PA-run government by pushing Israel harder to accept that option, building up the PA’s security and administrative capacity, and demanding that the PA’s current leadership step down. By doing so, the United States may be able to avoid the worst scenario. |
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