After the recent assassinations of top Hamas and Hezbollah officials in Tehran and Beirut, respectively, the likelihood of an all-out war between Israel, Iran, and its proxies has increased dramatically. Israel faces a multifront conflict with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran-backed groups in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. On top of this regional escalation, rising extremism among Palestinians in the occupied West Bank poses a growing threat which cannot be ignored, lest an additional front open there. Just this week, a Palestinian gunman in the West Bank killed an Israeli civilian and wounded another in a drive-by shooting attack, raising the number of Israelis killed by Palestinians in the West Bank to fifteen since October 7.
The proliferation of militant groups and increased support for them among West Bank Palestinians must be addressed as part of a strategy to prevent the outbreak of a full-blown conflagration and create a peaceful path to freedom and independence. Stabilizing the West Bank and providing an alternative to violent extremism is also crucial for the viability of successful post-Hamas governance in Gaza.
Palestinian militant groups have proliferated in the West Bank cities of Nablus, Jenin, Tulkarm, and Jericho, where clashes with Israeli forces are recurring and public support for armed struggle is on the rise. According to June 2024 polling by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSPCR), support for armed struggle among Palestinians in the West Bank has increased to 52% compared to 35% in September 2022, and support for Hamas in the West Bank has increased to 41% compared to 35% three months prior. This support for violence and extremism within Palestinian society will likely continue to increase in the absence of a political horizon and without a realistic pathway to independent Palestinian statehood.
In addition to Hamas, other militant groups including Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, and Lions Den, have strengthened their appeal among disaffected Palestinian youth. The independent Palestinian armed group Lions Den emerged in Nablus to resist the IDF campaign against West Bank terrorism in 2022-23 (Operation Break the Wave). Lions Den has since garnered widespread support in Nablus for its armed resistance – especially among the despondent younger generation that has only seen life under occupation – demonstrated by the proliferation of Lions Den posters on the walls of the city and songs about the group playing in cafes across Nablus.
Lacking a credible and moderate alternative to these militant groups, Palestinians in the West Bank who may have once believed in compromise and a two-state solution now believe that armed struggle is the only way forward. They are increasingly disillusioned by the rampant violence of the last year, entrenched Israeli occupation, and the gross failures of the Palestinian Authority (PA). Since the attack by Hamas on October 7, 587 Palestinians in the West Bank have been killed by skyrocketing Israeli settler attacks and IDF raids of Palestinian cities, towns, and refugee camps. The IDF has also tightened its control over the West Bank through checkpoints, roadblocks, barriers, and other restrictions on Palestinian freedom of movement, while cracking down on Palestinian freedom of political expression in the West Bank. Israel has designated these new Palestinian armed groups as terrorists and pursued them as such. To dismantle this terrorist infrastructure, Israel has conducted more than 2,000 raids – among them the deadliest raid on Jenin refugee camp in 20 years – with over 210 reported fatalities.
Further aggravating the situation is the crippling of the West Bank Palestinian economy by the Israeli government. Under the leadership of far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, the government has suspended Palestinian work permits and withheld tax revenues from the PA, in addition to taking other punitive economic measures.
Rather than acquiesce to this violence and despair, many Palestinians in the West Bank – beyond the longtime supporters of Hamas and PIJ – are now more inclined towards armed struggle as a last resort. Israeli settlement expansion, de facto annexation, and settler violence, which preceded October 7 and have accelerated since the Hamas massacre, are contributing to these growing albeit reversible trends toward violence and extremism. True believers in armed struggle and territorial maximalism aside, there is every reason to expect that these trends among recent converts to violent extremism will continue absent a peaceful path to freedom.
Meanwhile, the PA has been largely discredited, weakened by the Israeli government, and undermined by Netanyahu’s pre-October 7 bolstering of its rival Hamas. PA illegitimacy within Palestinian society is a function of its rampant corruption, authoritarianism, inefficient governance, and the uncertain succession to follow aging leader Mahmoud Abbas. Perceiving the PA as a traitorous “collaborator” with the Israeli occupation, young Palestinians have joined opposing armed groups – overtaking PA security forces in militant strongholds such as Nablus and Jenin.
The PA has attempted to respond to the emergence of these armed groups by seizing on local and international concerns of a potential West Bank collapse and fears of another intifada. In some instances the PA has attempted to tarnish the reputation of Palestinian armed group members by, for example, accusing them of having criminal backgrounds, violently disrupting the funerals of slain group members, and bribing group members to disarm.
With Israeli security experts warning that the situation could deteriorate further, the Biden Administration should do the following to help counter rising Palestinian extremism in the West Bank:
While the end of the Biden Administration is near, the remaining months of this presidency will be crucial in stemming the rising tide of West Bank Palestinian extremism for the future. The above measures will need to be enacted to prevent further deterioration of the situation in the West Bank and begin reversing the trends toward violence and extremism. In just over five months left of the Biden presidency, while focusing on constructive policy in Gaza, important steps can and must be taken to avoid the outbreak of a mass Palestinian uprising in the West Bank and instill hope in a peaceful future.