J Street Experts React to Israeli Election Results

Jeremy Ben-Ami, J Street President

The election results point to a meaningful shift in Israeli politics, though not the decisive result many of us hoped for.

Netanyahu and his far-right allies lost substantial support, and the pendulum did swing toward moderation and sanity, even if not decisively to the left. The parties in the coalition Netanyahu leads will lose 14 or 15 seats – more than 20 percent. While the exact final totals remain uncertain, this next Knesset will look markedly different.

The most important test in the weeks ahead is whether the center of Jewish Israeli society is prepared to welcome Arab citizens and their elected representatives as full and equal political partners in the country’s governance. Excluding them from the political process is not only undemocratic; it is self-defeating. It will make it impossible to build a viable alternative to the forces that have brought Israel to this dangerous moment. Genuine partnership is the only way to preserve the vision and values of Israeli democracy.

Even before a new government forms, the Knesset can advance critical reforms: establish a state commission of inquiry into the failures of October 7, reverse elements of the judicial overhaul, and ensure that politicians under indictment can’t serve as prime minister. Leadership will be needed from the “change bloc,” not pandering and playing to prejudice and fear.

Ilan Goldenberg, J Street Chief Policy Officer

Yesterday’s election results confirm what many expected: Israel faces a prolonged period of political uncertainty. But several things are clear. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition has collapsed from 68 seats to the low 50s. Arab parties demonstrated unprecedented strength and turnout, reinforcing that they cannot be excluded from governing indefinitely. Meanwhile, Eisenkot’s Jewish opposition bloc underperformed. Three main scenarios emerge.

The best outcome would be an Eisenkot-led government, including Mansour Abbas and supported externally by the Joint List. This could break longstanding taboos around Arab political participation and create space for progress on Gaza, settler violence, relations with the PA, and greater acceptance in the region. But ideological divisions, particularly involving Bennett and Lieberman, are major obstacles.

A second possibility is a Jewish-only unity government involving Likud and parts of the opposition, ideally with Netanyahu retiring but much more likely with him remaining in rotation as Prime Minister. The best version of this could curb extremism by keeping out Ben Gvir, Smotrich, and the ultra-Orthodox but would offer little progress on Palestinian issues. Worse permutations leave either the ultra-Orthodox or the extreme right in government.

The likeliest outcome is another election, with Netanyahu remaining caretaker prime minister. This risks demobilizing Arab voters and driving down opposition turnout, strengthening Netanyahu’s hand. However, at least during the interim period, an opposition-controlled Knesset could still constrain him, including by establishing an October 7 state commission of inquiry and reversing elements of the judicial coup agenda.

Nadav Tamir, Executive Director of J Street Israel

In these elections, Arab society sought true partnership, with voter turnout over 80 percent, nearly 3 percent higher than the national average. After four years of a government that persecuted them, destroyed homes, halted budgets, and showed indifference, some would even say worse, toward crime and violence in the streets of Arab communities, Arab citizens said loudly, “We are part of this state, and we want to be part of the decision-making process as well.”

Now the ball is primarily in Gadi Eisenkot’s and President Herzog’s hands. It is not enough to talk about “liberalism”; we need to act according to liberal values, foremost the value of equality. To give the citizen from Nazareth and the citizen from Rahat the feeling that their voice has power and influence, just like the voices of the citizens from Kfar Saba and Dimona. That the ability to influence the state and the direction it will take is not reserved for Jews alone, but for all citizens of the State of Israel.

One can hide behind demands for loyalty, on the verge of demanding Zionism. Still, one can understand the simple truth: a large public that comes out en masse to influence the state’s future does not want its destruction, but its construction in a way that will also benefit them.

I have few expectations of Lieberman, who is trapped by his various commitments and disqualifications, or of Naftali Bennett, who carries the scar of the “breach of promise” that led him to the Prime Minister’s office. The responsibility primarily lies on the shoulders of the leader of the camp, Gadi Eisenkot – do not let Netanyahu frame his largest parliamentary loss ever as a victory; remind the entire public and your coalition partners that a large majority of Israeli citizens demanded in these elections that a different, sane, equal, centrist government be established here. Remind the Jewish public that their neighbors in Haifa, Jaffa, and Nazareth Illit, their doctors, nurses, and lecturers in universities, are part of Israeli society. Citizens who, in these elections, stood up and said, “We demand equality; we demand change.”

And there is one more figure whose voice we must hear – Israeli President Isaac Herzog – the incitement against the Arab community, which on election day itself turned into a flood of filth and incitement flowing uncontrollably from Netanyahu and his partners, must not go unanswered by the president. Herzog is not the president of the Jewish citizens, but the president of all citizens of Israel, including the Arabs, and they are entitled to his protection and support.

In 2021, Herzog took an important step by arriving in Kfar Qassem to participate in the memorial ceremony for the victims of the 1956 massacre: “I bow my head in memory of the forty-nine killed...” “And on my behalf and on behalf of the State of Israel, I ask for forgiveness,” Herzog said then, in an important step toward healing the wounds and strengthening Arab society’s connection to the state. Now, in the face of the incitement of hatred and racism and the attempt to delegitimize the voices of Arab citizens, he must return to act and clarify that all citizens of Israel are equal, in their rights and in their voices.

Instead of demanding a “unity government” excluding the Arabs, Herzog should act to fulfill the people’s will. This will, as expressed in the 65 mandates at least that the opponents of Netanyahu’s government received, is a government without Likud, without the Kahanists and the messianics, and with the elected representatives of the Arab public who said loudly: I am here, I belong, I want to take part in leading the state.

Eisenkot and Herzog, do not support boycotts; do not succumb to incitement and hatred; do everything so the large public that brought about Netanyahu’s biggest defeat since 1999 gets the government it came out to vote for.

Yael Patir, J Street Policy Fellow

Last night, after four years of not knowing what the Israeli electorate really thought, the curtain finally lifted: a majority of Jewish voters continue to support Netanyahu after everything Israel has experienced. His base has not collapsed. It has become more consolidated, shaped by a shared sense of persecution during the Gaza war and anti-judicial coup protests.

With turnout approaching 78 percent, the highest since 1999, the election also exposed the limitations of polling. The preliminary results offer no decisive victory. Netanyahu has not secured a majority, but he remains caretaker prime minister. Israel could face an unprecedented situation: an opposition-controlled Knesset alongside a caretaker government led by Netanyahu, potentially prolonging political paralysis.

Yet Arab voters have also made a powerful democratic statement. Their increased turnout highlights the fundamental question facing Israel’s opposition: can it envision a political partnership that includes Arab citizens?

The election has not resolved Israel’s political crisis. It has exposed its deepest divisions – and the urgent need to confront them.

Frank Lowenstein, J Street Policy Fellow

While it will take at least several weeks to form the final Israeli government, Benjamin Netanyahu appears best positioned to lead the new coalition, since Likud won the most Knesset seats. However, Netanyahu’s bloc lost enough seats that it will need new partners to reach the 61-seat threshold. As long as the Zionist opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot refuses to include the Arab parties, they do not appear to have a path to forming a minority government, let alone a 61-seat majority, either.

Given the current split, the most likely immediate scenario is that Netanyahu will attempt to form a unity government with one or both of the biggest opposition parties, Eisenkot’s Yashar and Together, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. All have told supporters during the campaign that they will not serve with Netanyahu, so that reversing course would cost them a significant political price.

The strongest case Netanyahu can make for a unity government would be if Israel were facing a major conflict or crisis, as we saw during the Gaza war. The obvious option would be to restart the bombing campaign against Iran, which would create a lot of political pressure on the opposition parties, and Netanyahu has already been messaging that Israel and the U.S. need to “finish the job.” Reports from the IDF and Israel’s security services suggest Netanyahu was pushing hard to resume the war even before the election, so he should be expected to ratchet up his calls for attacking Iran now.

Given that President Trump has suggested he is strongly considering resuming the Iran war after the U.S. midterms next week, plans for joint U.S.-Israeli strikes may already be in the works. Trump has backed down from these threats before, but Netanyahu will likely strongly encourage him to follow through this time. So, one of the immediate implications of the Israeli election for the United States is an increase in the likelihood of resuming the war, which could have catastrophic effects for our regional partners while causing a major increase in U.S. and global energy costs.

Larry Garber, J Street Policy Fellow

Celebrating a Peaceful Process: Contrary to many fears, the election was conducted peacefully and administered professionally and credibly. Turnout increased by seven percent as compared to the most recent election in 2022, with a particularly dramatic surge among Israel’s Arab citizens. While the votes are still being counted, no party is alleging electoral fraud or claiming the results should not be respected.

Electoral Systems Matter: Netanyahu’s electoral bloc lost 14 seats and will no longer have a majority in the new Knesset. However, unlike in Hungary and Serbia, where the incumbent authoritarian leaders’ parties were soundly defeated, the Israeli results are more equivocal. Neither the incumbent nor the opposition is fully celebrating the results, and a transition to a more democratically inclined government is not assured. However, even before a new government forms, the opposition bloc, with support from the Arab parties, can assume political control of the Knesset when it convenes sometime next week and begin rolling back the anti-democratic legislation adopted over the past four years.

The Constitutional Framework: In the Israeli system, President Isaac Herzog must now designate the person that he deems most likely to form a government. Having received more seats in the next Knesset than Eisenkot’s party, Netanyahu will expect to be the initial designee, which would then give him at least 28 and potentially 42 days to form a new government, while remaining in place as Prime Minister, continuing to block efforts to ease the plight of the Palestinians in Gaza, and potentially leading Israel into a new war with Iran. To block this scenario, Eisenkot will have to convince his current coalition partners to enter negotiations with the two Arab parties, which obtained between 16 and 19 seats in the new Knesset, to support an Eisenkot-led government and to convince Herzog that the only possible government that can emerge from this election is one led by Eisenkot. Whether all relevant actors will be motivated to act with the seriousness the situation demands remains to be seen.