Initial Reactions and Policy Analysis to Israel's Strike on Iran - Frank Lowenstein

Ongoing Israeli Attack:

How prepared is Israel to defend itself against massive Iranian retaliation? Can their air defenses withstand a large-scale ballistic missile and drone attack without the direct support of the US and key regional actors, as the Israelis had the last two times Iran attacked? Do they try to get the US directly involved in further attacks on Iran?
Is Israel pushing for regime change in Iran? Will they start targeting political leaders?
Do they attack Iran’s oil refining facilities, which could have a major impact on oil prices and the global economy?
How much has Iran’s nuclear program actually been set back? What is the damage to the centrifuges at Natanz? How long will it take to repair them?
As long as the Fordow enrichment facility is intact, Iran still has the ability to enrich uranium to bomb grade. Does Israel try to strike the Fordow, either directly or covertly? Do they ask for strategic bombers and massive bunker busters from the US that would be needed to really damage Fordow?
Netanyahu has justified the attack by saying Israel was dealing with an imminent threat due to recent intelligence suggesting that Iran was rapidly advancing its weaponization program. Will he provide any public, verifiable evidence to back that up?

Iran’s Response:

How massive of a retaliatory attack can they mount against Israel? How much damage was done to Iran’s ballistic missile launchers? Do they still have the ability to launch a major ballistic strike on Israel that could potentially overwhelm Israel’s air defenses?
Does Iran signal at any point that it is interested in finding a path to de-escalate?
Will the Iranians target US facilities and personnel in the region, as they have threatened to, or try to keep the US and others out? Do they signal a willingness to engage directly with the Trump administration to drive a wedge between us and the Israelis?
Do they target Israeli civilian facilities in the region?
Do they utilize terrorist cells to attack Israeli or US civilian targets around the world?
How long will it take Iran to create a new command and control structure, with most of their top military leadership killed?
Do any of Iran’s remaining regional proxies attack Israel? Hezbollah has said they will not engage, and the Houthis are likely to up their attacks. Do other militias in Syria and Iraq get involved? Will Hamas try to launch rockets against Israel, resulting in more violence in Gaza?
Do they withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and kick inspectors out, as they have threatened to do?

US Response:

Trump spoke Friday about his continued interest in negotiations with Iran, despite the Israeli strikes. Will we see a push in the future, publicly and/or privately, for Israelis to de-escalate? Does he want to resume negotiations with Iran to seek a negotiated settlement to the immediate crisis and the nuclear issue more broadly?
Will the US deploy additional forces to the region to aid in Israel’s defense, as President Biden did when Iran attacked Israel last April and October? If so, how soon can we have significant additional resources in place?
Will we threaten to attack Iran directly in support of Israel, even if we are not targeted?
Will we veto all UN resolutions, or consider allowing some to pass to send a signal to the Israelis and the world that we want to end this war as soon as possible?

Regional Response:

How will key regional players, including Saudi Arabia, continue to respond? Will they avoid getting involved in any way so as not to be targeted by Iran?
Will Abraham Accords countries, particularly the UAE and Bahrain, take any formal diplomatic steps against Israel?