1) While I would have preferred diplomacy to resolve issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Israel’s leaders decided they could not take the chance of allowing Iran’s program to proceed further and there is unlikely to be much pushback among opposition party and civil society actors.
2) Israel’s military actions have dealt a significant blow to Iran’s capabilities and, as of this time, have not resulted in a feared massive retaliation by Iran – of course, Iran has sufficient remaining assets to respond at a time and place of its choice, and thus Israel and the US will have to be ever vigilant for an extended period of time.
3) Whether US officials greenlighted or opposed the Israeli operation, it is now a fait accompli – the US can be expected: a) to deter Iranian retaliation directed at US personnel and property, b) to provide Israel with assistance in defending against any Iranian response, and c) to protect Israel diplomatically against any international condemnation.
4) Whether Israel’s seeming military success further weakens Iran’s ability to cause regional mischief remains to be seen – regardless, the US should remain diplomatically active in Lebanon and Syria, where Iran’s nefarious role had been previously weakened.
5) Israel’s goal of stimulating “regime change” in Iran is likely not to be achieved and will likely lead to a further crackdown within Iran regime opponents and an aggressive effort to weed out those suspected of having collaborated with Israel.
6) An immediate resumption of negotiations at this point regarding Iran’s nuclear program appears futile, but the US and others should look for diplomatic openings that would minimize prospects for future conflict.
As the world’s attention turns to the Israel-Iran conflict, Israel’s military action in Gaza will likely continue, even as the humanitarian crisis worsens daily – the US should continue diplomatic efforts to press for an immediate ceasefire, return of hostages, and large-scale humanitarian access.
8) Whether the Israeli attack opens new opportunities for diplomatic progress on the Israeli-Palestinian file remains to be seen – regardless, the recommendations emerging from the Paris Peace Forum conference and the June 17-20 Saudi-France sponsored event deserve serious US attention.