Key Takeaways:
After unilaterally violating the phased ceasefire agreement, the Israeli government looks set to reoccupy Gaza. This reoccupation campaign would involve a “gloves off” offensive strategy, deploying five divisions – approximately 65,000 soldiers – into Gaza simultaneously, establishing total IDF control over humanitarian aid, and reduced concern for civilian lives and international law. This approach would endanger the lives of the estimated 24 living Israeli hostages still held by Hamas, as well as those of Palestinian civilians and numerous Israeli soldiers.
It is, of course, possible that Israel’s post-ceasefire posturing is part of a negotiation tactic – designed to pressure Hamas into accepting a proposal similar to the Witkoff plan, which extends Phase I, releasing some hostages while not requiring a full IDF withdrawal. However, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s return to the governing coalition, Smotrich publicly stating that his remaining in Netanyahu’s coalition was conditional on a return to fighting, and the unlikelihood of Hamas releasing hostages without guarantees of an IDF withdrawal seem to indicate that this is part of a long-term plan to reinvade Gaza.
In Israel, many reservists, hostage families and the broader public oppose a full-scale return to war. They’ve reached this point due to concerns regarding the safety of remaining hostages, combined with skepticism that renewed fighting would yield different outcomes than the first 15 months of conflict. Netanyahu and his far-right allies, however, insist that abandoning the ceasefire and proceeding with this intense invasion and blockade would finally disarm Hamas, leading to a “total victory.”
That vision may end up only producing endless war, as Netanyahu has yet to commit to a “day after” plan to govern Gaza, nor outlined a plan for returning the hostages. Coupled with the Prime Minister’s ongoing attacks on Israel’s democratic institutions – including politically motivated attempts to fire the head of the Shin Bet and the Attorney General – his refusal to articulate clear war objectives has fueled a growing perception that he is dragging Israel back into conflict and neglecting the hostages to indefinitely appease his far-right coalition partners and prolong his grip on power.
Most saliently, the growing perception that Netanyahu is dismantling Israeli democracy and abandoning the hostages in pursuit of his own political survival, combined with the highly demanding nature of the first 15 months of the war has resulted in widespread hesitation among reservists to enlist for this round of fighting. Senior commanders in the IDF’s reserve system have been sounding the alarm bells, with several of them warning of a 50% drop in the rate of reporting for reserve duty. Brigade and battalion commanders are each dealing with dozens of cases of reservists who are refusing to report for duty, already forcing units to borrow soldiers from other units. Most notably, an entire reserve team in an elite unit, whose specialized qualities have played a key role in both Gaza and Lebanon during the war, has refused to report for duty.
Public polling and escalating protests calling for the return of the hostages, and opposing the government’s anti-democratic policies further underscore how sharply Netanyahu’s government is diverging from the Israeli public’s desires. Opinion polls in Israel consistently show that, when presented with a choice between ending the war to secure the release of hostages or returning to full-scale war, approximately 70% of Israelis support the former option, while roughly 30% favour the latter. Strikingly, even among voters who supported Netanyahu’s Likud party in the 2022 elections, 54% support ending the war to release the remaining hostages.
Unconditional American support for Israel, particularly since the Republican Party regained control of the trifecta, has enabled Netanyahu to consistently act in contradiction to the Israeli public’s desires. The unconditional nature of White House, Congress, and American Jewry’s support for Israeli actions continues to enable the ultimate goal of preserving Netanyahu’s coalition – at the expense of Israeli national security, democracy, and the United States’ foreign policy interests. By failing to prevent American aid from being used to promote Smotrich and Ben-Gvir’s annexation and ethnic cleansing agendas, the White House and Congress are enabling Israel to undermine its own security, democracy, and international standing.
Those who prioritize Israel’s future as a safe, democratic, and Jewish state over Netanyahu’s political survival should align with the consensus of the Israeli public, and stand firmly against his attempt to drag the country back into war.