On August 8th, the Israeli security cabinet approved a significant but limited expansion of the IDF offensive in Gaza. Although Prime Minister Netanyahu pushed strongly for a complete invasion followed by an indefinite military occupation, the cabinet only agreed on the initial phase of his campaign: the IDF takeover of Gaza City, to begin in about 6 weeks. This was largely due to strong opposition to Netanyahu’s proposal from the IDF, which expressed serious reservations about the campaign’s risks and argued for pursuing ceasefire negotiations that would free the remaining hostages.
On August 18th, Hamas reportedly accepted a proposal from Egypt and Qatar for a temporary ceasefire and partial hostage release that the Israelis had agreed to last month. Netanyahu’s position has since changed, and he is now only interested in a comprehensive deal to release all hostages. The Israeli government is reportedly weighing the current proposal, though Netanyahu has only approved negotiations on a final agreement that would end the war on Israel’s terms. Even if Netanyahu agrees to a temporary ceasefire, he has publicly acknowledged that this would only delay his plans for a full military occupation of Gaza.
The Netanyahu government’s approval of a military mission that the IDF itself opposed strongly suggests that the operation’s goals are driven more by political and ideological considerations than by military necessity. Netanyahu’s latest conditions for a ceasefire and end to the war would effectively require a full Hamas surrender, ensuring endless conflict, displacement of the civilian population, and destruction of the limited remaining infrastructure in Gaza. As Netanyahu himself has admitted, his long-term ambition is the forced relocation of some 2 million Gazans to southern Gaza, where they will be encouraged to “voluntarily migrate” to other countries.
This is part of a parallel effort in the West Bank that includes violently expelling Palestinians from Area C while dramatically increasing settlement growth – including recently announcing plans to build on E-1, which has long been a red line for the international community. Taken together, it becomes clear that Netanyahu and his extremist coalition are implementing a comprehensive plan to advance their messianic vision of creating a Greater Israel while destroying any hope for a two-state solution.
The leading voice against Netanyahu’s proposal was Eyal Zamir, his hand-picked choice as IDF Chief of Staff, who described it as a strategic trap: “Occupying the strip would drag Israel into a black hole, taking responsibility for 2 million Palestinians, requiring a years-long clearing operation, exposing soldiers to guerrilla warfare, and most dangerously, endangering hostages.” In arguing against Netanyahu, Zamir raised several major IDF concerns about the proposed campaign:
Over the weekend, hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets across the country to oppose Netanyahu’s plan to expand the war. Recent polls show 74% of Israelis, including 60% of those who voted for Netanyahu in the previous elections, support an agreement with Hamas that would release all the hostages at once in exchange for an end to the Gaza war.
The most powerful regional actors have already issued strong condemnations of Israel’s plan to fully invade and occupy Gaza. Saudi Arabia’s cabinet described it as a plan for “continuation of a crime of starvation and ethnic cleansing.” Egypt’s Foreign Minister called Israel’s campaign in Gaza a “systematic genocide.”
This follows unprecedented steps to rebuke the Netanyahu government by countries that have historically supported Israel, including the announcements by France, the UK, Canada, and Australia to recognize a Palestinian state at the UNGA in September and Germany’s decision to cut off its export of arms that could be used in Gaza.
On August 9th, Netanyahu’s security cabinet laid out five conditions for ending the war: Hamas disarms and releases all hostages, Gaza is demilitarized, Israel retains overall security control, and responsibility for governing Gaza is transitioned to a civilian administration that excludes Hamas and the PA. Because this would effectively require a complete surrender by Hamas, it is a recipe for a forever war.
The Arab League’s most recent policy pronouncement called on Hamas to disarm and release all the hostages, and they should apply all possible pressure to get Hamas to comply. But Hamas has repeatedly made clear they will not disarm and release all the hostages without guarantees that the war will end, which Netanyahu has refused to provide. And it is not clear how Gaza could be demilitarized, given the sheer number of weapons and armed groups and clans, including some openly supported by Israel.
Most tellingly, Netanyahu said that he would only transition responsibility for governing Gaza to an alternative civilian administration that expressly did not include the Palestinian Authority. While the Arab League plan calls for a regional peacekeeping force and an interim technocratic government, they will only participate in post-war governance, security and reconstruction efforts with PA support. Excluding the PA would therefore mean that the IDF remained the de facto governing authority indefinitely, which suggests that the plan may be for there not to be many Gazans left to govern.
Netanyahu has recently changed his rhetoric about his long-term intentions in Gaza, likely in order to relieve international pressure, recently telling Fox News, “We are not occupiers. We want to remove Hamas from there, but we don’t want to keep it… We don’t want to govern it.”
However, the overall policy objective of driving as many Gazans as possible out as part of the “Trump Plan” appears unchanged. In fact, on August 14th, Netanyahu said Israel was conducting talks with several countries, reportedly including South Sudan, Somaliland, Libya and Indonesia, offering significant compensation for taking in large numbers of Gazans.
The Gaza City offensive will require the evacuation of some 1 million civilians, who would be pushed to temporary housing in the south. The next phase of Netanyahu’s plan would involve the invasion of Deir al-Balah and the refugee camps in central Gaza, which would drive another 600,000 Gazans south. Even if they were ever allowed to return, the military operations would destroy most remaining structures.
It is not clear where the Israelis plan to put nearly 1.5 million displaced civilians. Defense Minister Katz has advocated for creating a “humanitarian city” near Rafah where hundreds of thousands of civilians would be housed temporarily – but not allowed to leave, unless they left Gaza permanently.
It is important to understand the Gaza offensive’s objectives in the overall context of a comprehensive effort to forcibly remove Palestinians from Area C, which comprises some 60% of the West Bank.
Settler violence targeting Palestinian communities has reached unprecedented levels, often with at least the tacit approval of the IDF. Settlement expansion is at a historic high, and on August 14th, Israel announced plans to build 3,000 new settlement units on a parcel of land known as E-1. This has long been a red line for the possibility of a two-state solution, because it would permanently divide the West Bank and make a contiguous Palestinian state impossible. As Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich said, the point is to “bury the idea of a Palestinian state.”
When considered alongside Israel’s ongoing effort to drive Palestinians out of Gaza, it becomes clear that Netanyahu and the extremists in his coalition are operationalizing their goal of creating Greater Israel and destroying all prospects for a two-state solution.